London Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum Panel Chaired by Hon. Baroness Pauline Neville Jones, House of Lords, United Kingdom, former Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee:
Nation State Risk and the Future Influence in Security from Russia, China and North Korea
Westminster, London, United Kingdom, September 1, 2023
(Check against delivery)
Thank you dear Baroness Pauline Neville Jones for your kind introduction, chairing our Panel, which includes dear Lord Toby Harris and Amb. Nathan A. Sales.
Up-front, I want to acknowledge the important work of Congressman Robert Pittenger, as he enhances the knowledge and judgment of parliamentarians across the world.
And for dear Alicia Kearns, Chair of the House’s Foreign Affairs Committee, I thank you for tempering England’s foreign affairs away from Mutual Assured Destruction, for hosting us, and I bring you warm greetings from dear Greg Meeks, Ranker of our House’s Foreign Affairs Committee and former chair, dear Elliot Engel. I also thank Qatar’s dear Amb. Fahad Al – Attiya for supporting Robert’s noble initiative.
Before I jump into my remarks – “Need to Embrace Chamberlain & Churchill Now, as First Step Is First Strike!” – I pause to celebrate our Special Relationship with Mother England, and appreciate my dear family and friends present: my amazing wife Ranju, who after getting the Diwali Stamp issued by United States Postal Service, now has the annual “Diwali Stamp – Power of One” Awards at the UN Co-led by the EU for world class diplomats; our miracle daughter Angela; and my brothers-in-Hope: Kazakhstan’s Amb. Magzhan llyassov, and Philippines’ Amb. Teddy Locsin’s wife Louie, as Teddy after hosting FS James Cleverly in Manila, goes to Beijing as Special Envoy. Finally, I want to salute the sacrifices of the Intelligence community for verifying the Truth, so we can Trust Allies and Adversaries.
If I can be permitted to be candid: geopolitics of Hope is on life support, as diplomats are not allowed to warmly engage adversaries and instead are to be “wolf warriors,” and the Doomsday Clock is kissing Midnight as the word of many a Great Power is too often dishonored.
But, what an honor it is to be here in Westminister – the place that withstood the test of time, Armadas, the Black Plague, and the Battle of Britain and saw the rise of the calibrated Neville Chamberlain and the fearless Winston Churchill.
Still, Chamberlain made two mistakes: his 1938 “Munich Pact” falsely thinking he got “Peace for our time,” and being unprepared to stop Hitler from invading Poland in 1939. But his mistakes are no reason to curse him for eternity, as he was redeemed by Stalin’s Vyacheslav Molotov, who worked into the wee hours of the 24th of August and signed a non-aggression “Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact,” only to see Hitler invade Poland eight days later!
Churchill is why FDR and Stalin worked together, and Churchill is who pushed America to embrace our natural destiny: Protector of Freedom, not just Navigation in the SCS, with Lincoln’s motives – “with malice towards none and charity for all.”
Paraphrasing William Shakespeare, “the fault, dear Brutus, in not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are Overlords.” Yes, we first win, and then in our victory we seed our future loss. We won WW1 and choked the Weimar Republic enough, that Hitler was elected Chancellor. Then, as Allies we won WW2, created our United Nations, the Vatican of Hope, including the P5 in the Security Council – wherein we then switched ROC with PRC in 1971 – and now Two of the Five cast Vetoes, grinding the mighty Council into a stalemate and so allowing regional conflicts all over the world. And North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, no longer acting “crazy” when China wanted our attention, is now his own master with a nuclear candy store of deadly ICBMs.
Today, I know we need Chamberlain as much as Churchill, as we are cursed with nuclear-armed adversaries, so absolute victory is not possible and allowing the “First Step” is as bad as the “First Strike.” Over a year ago, I wrote an Op-Ed about Mr. Putin’s Ukranian misadventure entitled “Russian Roulette” results in a “Mexican Standoff,” and then last September proposed a six point Peace Plan that: restores Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, get Russia to pay rent, and inter alia, creates a joint war crimes tribunal, with Russian and Ukranian judges presiding over a televised court that harnesses the power of shame.
Our problems include:
- The gift of Democracy is that we have the greatest individual freedoms guaranteed by governments of limited separated powers, which autocracies structurally lack. But the strength of Autocracies’ long term-leaders is institutional memory, freedom to plan long-term and honor their word, which is the structural weakness of democracies when our newly elected leaders freely ignore the word of their political predecessors. So, for Democracies to win this contest, our leadership must rediscover “sacred honor,” a secular Epiphany, which we collateralized in 1776 and one we must now compel our Leaders to re-embrace. Exhibit A – we didn’t honor our sacred word memorialized in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, more binding than Article 5 of NATO, as Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up thousands of their Nukes in detrimental reliance, thereby binding us without annual dues. That Russia signed the same Memorandum and then invaded Ukraine is beyond the pale. I see Col. Bob Stewart, who over dinner at the Army Navy Club shared that it was his Regiment who burned down our White House in the War of 1812 and now we are family, is Exhibit B. Exhibit C is to see Ireland’s Senator Gerard Craughwell seated next to Col. Bob after their Civil War.
- While we celebrate PM Modi for restoring pride to Indians, we look askance at President Putin’s dreaming of Peter the Great and President Xi Jinping’s Rejuvenation of China. The answer is that PM Modi is not seeking to attack a neighbor and make her a part of India, while Mr. Putin is doing exactly that in Georgia since 2008 and in Ukraine since 2014, and Mr. Xi continues to draw 9 Dashes and occupies reefs and shoals that belong to her neighbors, and also continuing to use Debt as a sovereignty-piercing weapon to take ports and minerals.
- Ukraine’s bravery is a Churchillian moment, as it is a sad result of our breach of the Budapest Memorandum in failing to protect her by creating a “No Fly Zone,” which would simultaneously open the Negotiating Table. And that Mr. Putin would have to welcome, as he needs to negotiate a new security structure.
- The humble President Xi Jinping, since his ejection of Hu Jintao last October 22nd, confirmed to me that he is a man of Honor and a real life Count of Monte Cristo, but who is now seeking to be like POTUS: a real life commander-in-chief of the PLA. You see, the CCP never really controlled the PLA after death of Chairman Mao. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have seen “wolf warrior” Qin Gang’s promotion to FM as bait, and then the removal of treasonous cancer by changing leaders of the Rocket Force and consolidating foreign affairs authority in a unique man, without personal ambitions and who I respectfully disagree with on most issues, the great Wang Vi.
I submit, the solution to our problems is to:
- revive Neville Chamberlain to a position of honor in this Era of No Wars, and channel the Churchill in us to act timely, so as to prevent the First Step of conventional war, as if it was the First Strike in a nuclear war, as possession is 9/10th of the law. Just ask Ukraine or Philippines. So, in SCS, we should merge QUAD, AUKUS and NATO into a new “SCS-NATO.”
- Honor our word, and impose a No Fly Zone over Ukraine, and if necessary, over the Taiwan Straits to stop any War between Great Powers;
- Ban public insults from our public foreign affairs and diplomacy, and rediscover respect for our adversaries, as King Priam told Achilles after kissing the hand that killed his son Hector: “even enemies can show respect”;
- Don’t squeeze Allies or Adversaries and take everything we can, so we avoid the “Weimar Republic syndrome”; and
- Realize that after 20 years of our being in Afghanistan with our cultural influence, it didn’t grow local roots. Today, imposing our secular Human Rights culture disturbs the Faithful. Instead, dear Miguel A. Moratinos, Spain’s great former FM and current head of UN Alliance of Civilization, has the correct answer with cultural cohabitation: alliance, not competition, of civilizations. This honors Pope Francis’ advice that we respect all Faiths, and hence, prevent Quran-burning from impeding admission into NATO.
We need to free “Truth” from the petty needs of politics to have “Honor.” Gone are the days when Kings were on the battlefield and risked their lives. If the Samurai tradition of committing Seppuku applied to all Leaders, we will see Honor return to the comity of nations real fast, and Prigozhin would remain just a Cook.
Our problems are old. Remember that “[t]he Charge of the Light Brigade” by Alfred, Lord Tennyson was about the 1854 Battle of Balaclava, during the Crimean War! We need to govern better, without spilling precious blood of innocent patriots. We need less governmental malpractice.
So, Mr. Putin needs to stop his ill-advised War of Aggression. President Xi needs to order his General Li to respectfully meet with our Secretary Lloyd Austin and answer General Mark Milley’s calls, and erase the 9 Dashes. Today’s Era is also not for Neo-Colonialism or Ming’s Neo-Tribute system. By using necessary mistrust and caution, we can negotiate a fair and just Peace for all. The Ukraine War is not just in Europe or about Europe, as global food shortages will kill millions more from hunger, and hyperinflation of energy will hurt billions of Voters who are angry having to choose between food or fuel. Our 2024 Elections will make America wiser and stronger.
Lastly, as for SARS-CoV2 and Fukushima, we need total transparency by China and Japan, respectively, so we can move on to be good neighbors who compete in trade as strongly as we do in sports.
I close with two quotes of Churchill and one of Chamberlain. The first is his tribute to Chamberlain: He had the most “noble and benevolent instincts of the human heart, the love of peace, the toil for peace, the strife for peace, the pursuit of peace, even at great peril.” The second is why I went back in time:”the farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” And, lastly, in our MAD-world with Nukes: “In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers.”
So, let’s stop the War in Ukraine, make Mischief Reef into a tourist resort and help President Xi end China’s Cultural Revolution and make his PLA subject to civilian rule. If we invite Russia to join NATO, we will get her “No Limits” partner too. Civilian disputes traded “Trial by Combat” for “Trial by Jury” 500 years ago. It’s time for Sovereigns to do the same.
I thank you.
Contact. M: +1914-882-6382; E: [email protected] and Twitter: @ravibatra
-
- “Russian Roulette” results in “Mexican Standoff!?
( https://www.america-times.com/russian-roulette-results-in-mexican-standoff/ ) - Editorial: Pres. Putin – 6 Point Peace Plan That’s Fair & Just to Honor SCO-Samarkand
( https://www.america-times.com/editorial-pres-putin-6-point-peace-plan-thats-fair-just-to-honor-sco-samarkand/ )
- “Russian Roulette” results in “Mexican Standoff!?
Ravi Batra, Esq.
Ravi Batra, starting September 11, 2021, is a publisher of The America Times Company Ltd., and since January 2022, is the Editor-in-Chief. He is a member of the National Press Club, in Washington D.C., and a member of its "Freedom of the Press" and "International Correspondents" Teams/Committees.
A member of the bar since 1981, he is the head of a boutique law firm in Manhattan, The Law Firm of Ravi Batra, P.C., that handles complex constitutional, sovereignty, torture, civil and criminal cases, representing governments, corporates and individuals, with landmark legal victories, including, libel in fiction, in “Batra v. Dick Wolf.” He is Chairman & CEO, Greenstar Global Energy Corp., King Danylo of Galicia International Ltd., Mars & Pax Advisors, Ltd., Chairman of National Advisory Council on South Asian Affairs, and since September 2021, Advisor for Legal and Humanitarian Affairs to the Permanent Mission of Georgia to the United Nations. He is invited by various governments to address High Level Ministerial events, including, on Counter-Terrorism, including, Astana (Nur-Sultan), Dushanbe, Minsk and Delhi. He has testified in Congress as an invitee of the Chair, U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, and interacted with U.S. Department of State from 1984 -1990, and then again, from 2006, during the tenures of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Rex Tillerson, Mike Pompeo and Antony Blinken.
He has served as Commissioner of New York State Joint Commission on Public Ethics (JCOPE), Trustee on New York State IOLA Board, New York State Judicial Screening Committee for the Second Judicial Department, City Bar’s Judicial Committee, Vice-Chair of Kings County Democratic County Committee’s Independent Judicial Screening Committee for the then-2nd Judicial Department of Brooklyn and Staten Island, Chair of NYSTLA’ Judicial Independence Committee, with many more bar leadership roles, including, NYSBA’s House of Delegates for four years. He has served as Advisor for Legal & Human Rights Affairs to the Permanent Mission of Ukraine post-annexation of Crimea till 2021, and Legal Advisor to numerous nations’ permanent missions to the U. N. since 2009, including, India, Pakistan, Honduras and Malta. He has served: as Global Special Counsel to The Antonov Company in Ukraine, a state-owned company, and was registered with the Justice Dept pursuant to FARA; and as Special Global Advisor to Rector/President of both - National Aviation University of Ukraine and National Technical University of Ukraine/KPI. He remains involved in geopolitics and public policy since the mid-1980's, starting with being on House Speaker Tip O’Neill’s Speaker’s Club and appointed member of NACSAA during President Ronald Reagan’s tenure. In 1988, he was part of U.S. Attorney General Ed Meese’s Delegation to Japan to resolve bilateral trade imbalance. He regularly interacts with the multilateral diplomatic community, and during the High Level UNGA Debate, with heads of State/Government. He is sought for his views as a speaker and writer.