Indo-Pak Dialogue Dilemma

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Muscat, Oman – In diplomacy dialogues, discussions, negotiations on key issues are widely accepted rules and effectively practiced methods. Unfortunately the two neighboring countries India and Pakistan have always found it hard to adopt this process in resolving various long lasting issues. In the past, many efforts with positive intents by leaders of two countries had failed. This resulted in situation of mistrust. As far as the Indo-Pak relationship is concerned, allegations and counter allegations have become order of the day.

Nawaz Sharif, through democratic election process, came to power with majority. A strong government in Pakistan was expectations of many. But owing to many internal issues, he could not become as powerful as it was expected. There was situation when remaining in power was a big question for him. Though civil-military relations in Pakistan seem to have improved a little in recent times, the Army Headquarter in Rawalpindi remains powerful in many policy making process.

India on the hand, being the largest democratic nation in the world, saw a historic mandate in favor of a single party with majority after three decades. A strong government led by Narendra Modi has come to power. By inviting all heads of the neighboring nations (SAARC) for his swearing-in, a clear message of friendship was sent out. His visits to Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and recent boundary agreement with Bangladesh indicate that India is going to deal them with respect. Through diplomatic efforts and exchange of visits to several other countries, he has certainly brought dynamism in India’s foreign policy and raised India’s profile in global arena. But many critics complain Modi does not have any clear foreign policy, particularly in relation with Pakistan.

Indo-Pak relation is the biggest thorn in foreign policy for both countries. History of past sixty eight years attempts for dialogue have become myth and produced no results. Many serious efforts, agreements followed with tensions across the border, violations of cease fire agreement long LOC and even resulted in war between the two Countries. Atal Behari Bajpayee’s efforts to ease relationship through mutual dialogues, introduction of Samjhota Express, starting Delhi Lahore Bus Services confronted with Kargil War. Manmohan Singh’s attempts of more liberal visa policy, increasing better trade ties and even providing most favored nation status to Pakistan resulted in 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. So Modi will surely not like similar results to happen through his efforts.

It is true handshakes, hugs will not resolve deep rooted problems, talks at different diplomatic levels must be on. At the same time both sides must create positive environment for meaningful dialogues. When people complain cancellation of foreign secretary-level talks were unilaterally done by India, they overlook objection of meeting and engagement with Hurriyat leaderships by Pakistan in Indian soil. Will Pakistan agree for any talk or dialogue by India at any diplomatic level? If India engages openly with Baluchistan rebels in Pakistan soil during such meeting, will Pakistan accept it? Indo-Pak relationship is a complex process, it requires long term trust building efforts to ensure agreed terms are implemented and repeated occurrences of violations do not take place.

Both India and Pakistan want talks and dialogues to be on. China is building economic corridor in Pakistan through Gadar Port, renewed its interests for peace in Afghanistan and pressuring Pakistan for curbing terrorism within the country. International community also realizes that peace in Kabul is linked with Pakistan and better Indo-Pak relationships. Intelligentsias in Pakistan also feel internal peace is a must to attract investment and for the development of the country. India, as always, prefers to have better ties with Pakistan and to enhance trade between two countries. It may be due to all these factors, Modi and Sharif met on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in Ufa in early July this year to discuss issues of bilateral and regional interests.

Rising tensions in LOC and international boarder were major concerns during Ufa talks. Both Prime Ministers agreed to “doables” and after the bilateral meeting, Indian Foreign Secretary Jaishankar and his Pakistan counterpart Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry issued a joint statement. The text of the statement enumerated five steps to be taken by both sides with the first major step is to arrange meeting in New Delhi between the two NSAs to discuss all issues connected to terrorism. In addition, Modi needs to visit Islamabad for the SAARC summit in 2016. So push was needed to come to table of dialogues.

However, the joint statement seemed to have not gone down well with Pakistan Army camp as they cautioned civil government not to move with India’s terms. It is unfortunate that Pakistan has brought back Hurriyat card again, on the eve of meeting NSA (National Security Advisors) level meeting in New Delhi. It may be noted, the Hurriyat never represented the Kashmiri point of view, particularly after recent election in J&K, they are much weaker and fragmented. Most of its members are seen as compromised, monetizing their politics on either side. India’s sensitivity on the Hurriyat is well known to Pakistan. If the Pakistan civil government did not have courage or willingness to discuss issue of “Terror” by defying interference of Army, no joint statement should have been made at first place. Now any attempt of bringing other issues in NSA level meeting will be seen Pakistan as unwilling to talk on terror.

Many public debates are taking place in both countries at various platforms. Party spokespersons are fighting the same old verbal battles. The environment is being vitiated in both countries. We can keep debating who is right or wrong, but it will have no real meaning at this juncture. Blame game will not help and lead to any search for solutions.

All issues are ultimately settled through talks. Narendra Modi has reiterated the same many times. Nawaz Sharif has also shown his interest in dialogue on terror issue. Considering vicious bitterness of our public debate, it may be better to have these talks away from public attention, may be in foreign soil. The process of talks has been initiated, if dialogue on terror eventually takes place, it may be good starting and good for both the nations. `

Mousumi Roy
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Mousumi Roy has a Masters (MA - Political Science) from Calcutta University and is a visiting professor of International Relations in Muscat, Oman

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